Will the Fed Raise Interest Rates at the October 28, 2026 FOMC Meeting?
By Ronan Cox · Christie Cox Group · Views as of October 5, 2026
The short answer: Probably not. As of October 5, 2026, I put the odds of a Fed rate hike at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting at roughly 20–25%. A hold at 3.75%–4.00% is substantially more likely — and for markets, the bigger question is now December, not October.
What are markets pricing for the October FOMC meeting?
The market has moved sharply toward a hold. CME-based pricing currently implies about a 26% probability of a 25-basis-point hike to 4.00%–4.25%, versus roughly a 74% probability that rates remain at 3.75%–4.00%. My own read lines up closely with that.
Why have the odds of an October rate hike fallen?
1. The September jobs report was weak
Only 29,000 jobs were added in September, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. That gives the Fed a strong reason to be cautious about tightening further.
2. Fed officials are signaling patience
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack — relatively hawkish on inflation — said there is still substantial time to evaluate incoming data before the October meeting. Other Fed officials have similarly indicated there is no urgency to hike again.
What is the case for another hike?
3. Inflation is still the problem
The counterargument is significant. September's ISM services report showed the prices-paid component rising sharply, with input-price pressures at their highest level in more than four years. Energy and commodity prices are also creating renewed inflation risk.
4. The Fed already hiked in September
The FOMC raised the funds rate 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in September and indicated that another increase before year-end remained possible. The door is open — it just may not be October.
Why December matters more than October
The big issue for markets is increasingly December rather than October. Current futures pricing is much more favorable to a December hike than an October one.
In other words, I think the most likely scenario is "pause in October, reassess, and potentially hike in December."
What should investors watch before the next Fed decision?
From an investment-market perspective, I am focused on four data points:
September CPI and PCE inflation
Oil prices
Treasury yields
The next employment report
If inflation remains elevated while the labor market stabilizes, an October hold followed by a December hike could become the Fed's base case.
Frequently asked questions
Will the Fed raise rates in October 2026?
Probably not. As of October 5, 2026, Ronan Cox puts the odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting at roughly 20–25%, with a hold at 3.75%–4.00% about 75–80% likely.
What is the federal funds rate right now?
After a 25-basis-point hike at the September 2026 meeting, the federal funds target range is 3.75%–4.00%.
What are markets pricing for the October FOMC meeting?
As of October 5, 2026, CME-based futures pricing implied about a 26% probability of a 25-basis-point hike to 4.00%–4.25% and about a 74% probability of a hold at 3.75%–4.00%.
Could the Fed hike by 50 basis points in October?
Very unlikely. Ronan Cox puts the probability of a 50-basis-point hike at less than 1%.
Is a December 2026 rate hike more likely than an October hike?
Yes. Futures pricing is much more favorable to a December hike than an October one. The most likely path is a pause in October, a reassessment of the data, and a potential hike in December.
What data will decide the Fed's next move?
September CPI and PCE inflation, oil prices, Treasury yields and the next employment report. If inflation stays elevated while the labor market stabilizes, an October hold followed by a December hike could become the Fed's base case.
This article is for informational purposes only and reflects the author's views as of the date noted. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and probabilities and forecasts are opinions, not guarantees. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult your advisor about your own circumstances. Securities offered through Arete Wealth Management, LLC, members FINRA and SIPC. Investment Advisory services offered through Arete Wealth Advisors, LLC an SEC registered advisory firm.